Lancaster, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

076
FXUS61 KILN 160155
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
955 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The high wind warning has reverted back to a wind advisory.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Windy and unseasonably warm conditions will continue ahead of an
approaching cold front. Showers, with a chance of thunderstorms, can
be expected tonight.

2) Scattered snow showers are expected on Monday, potentially
lingering into the evening. Although roads are expected to be mainly
wet during the daytime, some isolated slick spots may develop after
sunset with falling air and ground temperatures.

3) A much colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and
Tuesday, with lows in the teens likely Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Gradient winds have settled down this evening as forecast. And while
winds will increase again with the passage of a cold front overnight,
it does not appear that any gusts will reach 58 mph or more.

Convective line moving across Indiana still has some potential to
produce damaging winds, but the probability of that occurring is
meager per recent WoFS runs and mainly confined to areas west of
I-75. Thus the high wind warning has reverted back to a wind
advisory. And if there is still potential for damaging winds from the
convective line as it moves into the area, we will issue severe
thunderstorm warnings.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Coinciding with the breezy conditions through the day Monday will be
the potential for some SHSN as sufficient moisture/lift persists
within the deepening/lowering DGZ through the daytime Monday. This
will occur as an incredibly deep/potent PV anomaly digs into the
region, providing plenty of forcing (and even some instby) for some
SHSN activity through the daytime Monday. Some snow squalls will be
possible, but thankfully ground temperatures and the relatively-high
March sun angle should limit accumulation potential (and impacts)
through the daytime, even as air temps slowly dip below freezing by
late afternoon (ground/road temps will lag by at least several
hours).

Of concern, however, is the potential that SHSN activity lingers
past sunset. This loss of solar insolation amid air temps falling
into the 20s, may create isolated slick spots/snow accumulation on
untreated surfaces. It seems likely that at least ISO activity will
persist past sunset given the maintenance of sufficient lift amidst
a saturated DGZ , meaning that wet roads may turn somewhat slick in
an isolated capacity coincident with the steadiest SHSN activity.
Although overall accumulations will remain minor, the prospect of
SHSN with subfreezing air and ground temps will be watched closely
for impacts to roads.

KEY MESSAGE 3)

Strong CAA will likely result in a non-diurnal temp trace Monday,
with slowly falling temperatures during the daytime, even after the
rapid drop expected with the FROPA during the predawn hours. This
CAA will persist into Monday night and early Tuesday morning,
allowing for temps to dip into the teens area-wide by daybreak
Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday may only reach into the upper 20s and
lower 30s Tuesday before again dipping into the upper teens again
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With the recent warm stretch,
this magnitude and persistence of late-season cold may be
problematic for sensitive vegetation, some of which may be in the
early stages of blooming.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong winds, both sustained and gusts, will continue throughout the
period. VFR to begin. A band of showers will move in after 04Z with
a narrow axis of more intense showers, and possibly a thunderstorm,
moving the terminals between 04Z and 08Z. A cold front will follow
within a few hours of this stronger line of showers shifting winds
from south to west southwest. MVFR ceilings will move in, likely
below 2kft. These ceilings will rise above 2kft after 12Z with some
locations possibly breaking out of this into a VFR deck late in the
period. Scattered snow showers will develop after 17Z. These could
cause localized visibility restrictions, but that far out in time
have opted to keep the TAFs simple.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday night into Tuesday
morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>072-077>080.
     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for OHZ073-074-081-082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for KYZ089>099.
     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for KYZ100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...